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Discussion in 'The Courtyard Café' started by scroobal, Nov 6, 2017.
Nowsaday so many dai chi... change the names to Italian become a mafia movie.
Not just KSA but alsoUAE and Kuwait (which is very curious as they have been trying to mediate between KSA and Qatar so throwing their weight behind KSA is intriguing - note absence of Bahrain and Oman typically carves its own path regardless)
Add this parallel plotting:
And let's drop a diss track by the equivalent of GCC Heavenly Kings - the shockingly incendiary lyrics directly suggest changing the royalty running Qatar now....
Will our SAF be sending ground troops to support Saudi Arabia's vision of moderate Islam? Our troops can unleash fire and fury upon Tehran! We are well trained in urban ops and counter terrorism.
Recommend the SAF pit their best in class skills on urban training against Hezbollah before launching into Iran...
The day of reckoning is finally here! Our paper generals can finally shake off that useless title and be upgraded as a true battle hardened general!
Looks like hariri is under house arrest. Why he bother to go to saudi in the first place is a mystery.
To understand middle east, we have to go back to the time of alexander the great. The west, represented by greeks, and persians of the aryan race (present day Iran) and messopotamia.
The jews were slaves under persian rule. Or second class citizens.just like they were under pharoah in egypt.
The rest, arabs, turks, kurds etc were mercenaries.
Replace greeks with romans and its the same thing. War with persia.
Replace romans with the west.
My thoughts. For some reason, the europeans have some problem living with persians. The other players in the middle east are mere pawns in this game.
I am not sure if it was coincidence but it does seems that the visit to Lebanon by the advisor to the supreme leader of Iran and the meeting with the PM of Lebanon the previous Friday seemed to have triggered the series of event external to the corruption drive. That same day not only Hariri was called to Riyadh but the PLO Leader was also called. I hope the sequence of events right.
What is clear is that the Iranians with the removal of sanctions have gone all out. The West seemed to have been misled by the Nuclear agreement. Its a difficult agreement to unwind.
I am sure the version of Islam and led by the Clerics are not what the World wants to see. So far they have quietly allowed the Sunni's to bring terror to the West while they seem to be slowing moving into the old World of the Caliphate.
Sorry but your analysis here is completely off-point. There was no trigger but it had been calibrated to occur sequentially. The only coincidental act is the rocket attack on Riyahdh airport. Based on what I have been told, the push against Iran is really MBS with his messianic complex - Nasser rallied the Sunnis previously and Pan-Arabism fell flat because of the Six-Day War. Then it was Saddam as a reaction against the 1979 revolution. Kushner was in KSA the same week this happened. So that is not a coincidence. MBS is 32 years old and believes he should be the leader of the Sunni world and will rule for at least the next 50 years. This is a young chap who bought a yacht for $500million because he liked the sight of it.
It is clear that the only real trigger is the collapse of Iraq and the forces it unleashed, in particular the ability for the formerly majority oppressed Shia population of Iraq to take control and Iran filling in the void.
Bear in mind that 20% of KSA is also Shia and they are in the oil producing region of KSA. This "version of Islam" is not really the issue. Its really an issue of who leads - the Saudis via MBS or the Iranians via the presiding Ayatollah.
As for the nuclear agreement your assertion that the Iranians had pulled the wool over the eyes of the world is really stretching incredulity. It was an agreement hammered out by Iran with major European and US negotiators who have much better depth of understanding and breadth of knowledge of Iranian matters. The checks and balances of the deal have yet to be prove that the Iranians are in breach. Also not sure why it is "clear" that the Iranians have gone all out - the strategy has been specific - they declared that they would never allow Damascus to fall to ISIS, and they (together with the Russians) poured resources into ensuring it did not happen. Would you have preferred a Syria controlled by ISIS funded by the GCC nations?
So what source of evidence do the Saudis and Israelis have that they have not shared with the rest of the world? Do you think really Bibi would hesitate to go to the UN and offer direct incontrovertible proof that they are in clear breach? He who drew this at the UN in an attempt to demonstrate the clear and present danger Iran posed?:
Ironically even Bibi of all people seems to have changed his views on the deal:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shifted his strategy in opposing the Iran nuclear deal, pushing instead to sway its signatories to change the agreement rather than scuttle it.
“The goal that I have in mind is not keeping or eliminating the deal. It’s improving the deal and correcting its main flaws,” Netanyahu told his British counterpart, Prime Minister Theresa May, on Thursday, when the two met at 10 Downing Street in London.
Netanyahu has embarked on a series of conversations with world leaders after finding they are more open to fixing rather than nixing it.
It was a markedly different tone from the past, when his focus was solely on pushing the world powers to reject the deal.
@smiley, looks like Macron, MBZ and Hariri met on Thursday morning at Abu Dhabi Palace. The next day Macro flies to Riyadh unexpectedly.
This is a thriller in the making.
Wow, I did not realise that all these were planned. Like the comparison with Nasser.
Agree on the Iraq being the trigger - I wonder what Francis Fukuyama and his neocon buddies would now say on the intrigue behind Wolfensen et el.
The Lebs are hopefully much smarter now - they are one of the most resilient people in that part of the world - loathed admired and feared, men and women alike - not many realise that the power of the Leb diaspora is deeply enthrenched all over the world - if you scratch beneath the surface of the African continent in particular you will find them well-established and flourishing and they are mostly Shia - heck, even Amal Clooney's sister has been in Singapore for over 20 years and she is Druze! But I digress...
And you have the BBC indulging in mischievous reportage:
"Iran is establishing a permanent military base inside Syria, a Western intelligence source has told the BBC....The images of the base do not reveal any signs of large or unconventional weaponry which means if it was a base it would most likely be to house soldiers and vehicles. One source said it was possible that senior Iranian military officials may have visited the compound in recent weeks."
In this context, Ibrahim explained that the House of Saud is working to ensure that Palestinians living in Lebanon side with Riyadh, especially in the wake of Prime Minister Saad Hariri's sudden resignation.
Analysts also believe that the House of Saud remains concerned over the prospect of the incorporation of Hamas members into the Palestinian government, amid a push by the group to enhance ties with Iran.
Earlier this month, Hamas’ deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri held a public meeting with Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, which came just days after a high-ranking Hamas delegation, led by al-Arouri, visited Tehran and met with senior Iranian officials.
In this respect, Mazen Safi, a political analyst based in Gaza, believes that King Salman summoned Abbas in order to position himself as a power broker—while sidelining Iran—ahead of the formation of the Palestinian unity government.
This comes on the backdrop of U.S. special envoy Jared Kushner’s secret trip to Saudi Arabia late last month, which reportedly led to” developments” on the Israeli-Palestinian front. To this end, President Donald Trump is slated to reveal a peacemaking blueprint that is expected to break from the status quo of bilateral talks between the two sides and instead pursue a regional approach to ending the conflict.
Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab states seem more interested than ever before in solving the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to invest the attention and energy needed to prevent Iran from increasing its dominance in the Middle East.
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