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Serious Geopolitical climate and our position...

Discussion in 'The Courtyard Café' started by zhihau, Dec 30, 2016.

  1. syed putra

    syed putra Alfrescian Old Timer

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    australia stole huge chunks of east timor maritime territory and nobody complains. by right, the huge sunrise gas field is not in australia. It should be in east timor. But they send in their troops and kidnapped the east timor leader Gusmao, and made him sign a agreement giving away their rightful territory.
     
  2. syed putra

    syed putra Alfrescian Old Timer

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    Indonesian businessmen are nothing but thieves. they mine coal, and other minerals, cut the timber and put the money in singapore and does not pay their dues in taxes by under declaring and trading the products and collect payment in singapore. Singapore is the recipient of all the natural resources in indonesia. But under jokowi who understand business, maybe there could be changes.
     
  3. frenchbriefs

    frenchbriefs Alfrescian (Inf)

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    If the source of all ur problems is a tiny pressing land,why not apply some calamine lotion and relieve the itch once and for all?
     
  4. tanwahtiu

    tanwahtiu Alfrescian Old Timer

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    The IoT will close the gap and religion will play no part in getting Asean together.



     
  5. Zobolan

    Zobolan Alfrescian Old Timer

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    I thought ASEAN is like UN people get together and have fun and talk cock sing son sessions later dun kacheow each other countries policies.
     
  6. Asterix

    Asterix Alfrescian (Inf)

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    China has plenty of human capital, it's position in the new world order is secure. As for Sinkies, char kway teow is more important, just have faith in Pinky and his team of clowns, everything will be fine.

    How China can turn the tables on Donald Trump’s America

    Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory is another milestone in the backlash against globalisation in the West. Brexit was the first one, and there are more to come. In five years, the post-cold-war world order could be remade. Negotiated deals, rather than uniform rules, could define the global economy.

    Blue-collar workers in America’s rust belt made Trump the next president of the United States. His promises to bring back jobs and limit immigration were at the heart of his appealing messages. If Trump wants to keep their support, he must deliver on these promises. That means he will renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and redefine America’s economic relationship with China.

    For the quarter of a century after the cold war, both the Republican and the Democratic parties persuaded their supporters to vote against their economic interests.

    The Republican Party conjured up a culture war to persuade low- and middle-income white voters to support them with their policies of cutting taxes, dismantling labour unions, empowering financial speculators, tolerating rampant illegal immigration, and maximising corporate profitability through cross-border arbitraging in the name of free trade.

    The Democratic Party has created identity politics that push people to vote according to the colour of their skin or against socially conservative voters, the so-called “values voters”, on the other side. In the meantime, the party has become driven by corporate donations by advocating free trade and financial deregulation. And the leaders of the Democratic Party have become fabulously rich by selling influence to rich people.

    Both parties have become the same. It is no coincidence that the Bushes and the Clintons have become good friends. They essentially do the bidding of the people who go to Davos every year. The global elite who collude across national lines to rip off working people are a real phenomenon. Wealth and income are increasingly distributed by political power and speculation. The liberals and conservatives today are like two rich sports teams. They go to the same schools and hang out at the same joints. Political competition is a game to them.

    Trump is an opportunist who saw an opening in the political system wide enough to drive a truck through. A consummate salesman, he knew what to say on every occasion. That’s why he won. Now the real show has begun. Could President Trump deliver?

    A redistribution of income would be difficult. Trump’s tax package would make income distribution worse. His buddies may try to deregulate the financial sector more, which would encourage even more speculation. His domestic agenda will not satisfy the voters who elected him. Hence, it is inevitable that he will turn to abroad to fulfil most of his promises.

    First, his infrastructure plan must leverage the savings in East Asia. America will need at least US$3 trillion of infrastructure investment, yet its total net savings total just over half a trillion dollars per annum. Most savings in the world are in East Asia. Trump’s infrastructure plan will inevitably rely on rising interest rates and the rising dollar to suck in East Asian savings. More competition for savings could pop all the bubbles in East Asia, like in 1997.

    Second, Trump is likely to do something quickly to show his determination to help blue-collar workers. China would come to his mind first. Steel and aluminium could become the first targets; not just with tariffs but, rather, all ways to stop shipments through third countries could be implemented quickly. Also, he would make a big issue of renminbi depreciation. Unless China reverses its course on depreciating the currency, a trade war is inevitable.

    Third, to maintain trade, he is likely to force East Asian countries to open their domestic markets to American goods. The East Asian model is about maximising investment through forced savings. The big distortion in the relative price between consumption and investment is a key driver. High consumption prices, despite wide-ranging overcapacity in China, reflects policy bias, not market forces. Protectionist policies are likely to come under attack from a Trump administration that will always be looking for demons at home and abroad.

    Many analysts believe that the Trump administration would be less involved strategically in Asia, especially in the South China Sea. They will be sorely disappointed. Trump’s foreign policy view reflects his voters’ angst on unproductive wars in the Middle East since the September 11 terrorist attacks. But, he has vowed repeatedly to rebuild the US military. America’s global military dominance, especially in East Asia where most global production and savings take place, is a pillar for its prosperity, especially for the dollar’s global status. The Trump administration is likely to be more hawkish in East Asia than Obama’s.

    The rising tide of antiglobalisation in the West exposes the vulnerabilities in China’s economic model. Its investment-and-export-led model has already run into a wall. By stoking a property bubble, it hopes to buy time for global demand to come back. With Trump’s victory, that hope should be extinguished. China must chart a new course forward, not just for itself, but for the whole global economy.

    China should not stand by and watch the US suck in East Asian savings at a low price to rebuild its economy. Rising interest rates and the rising dollar will just be temporary baits. In the long run, the dollar will come down again to rob the savers here. China should become a magnet for global capital to give the US some competition.

    The current global savings glut is largely due to forced savings in China. It is causing overinvestment and bubbles at home and abroad. Because the country is so overbuilt, the forced savings policy has no economic merit whatsoever.

    China should abandon forced savings and give the money back to the household sector to develop a consumption-led economy. Because of its potential to become the largest consumer market by far, China would become a magnet for global capital again. China doesn’t lack potential. Misallocation of resources and government inefficiencies are holding back the country. All China needs is for the government to take a few steps back.

    The Trump victory is unambiguously negative for China. It could deflate China’s property bubble and increase confrontation in the South China Sea. However, if China makes the necessary reforms, it could turn the tables and cement China’s central role in the global economy once and for all.

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight...w-china-can-turn-tables-donald-trumps-america
     
  7. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    ASEAN must be strengthened, Singapore will chair next year, what are the plans made?

    Still waiting for China Congress 2017 to be over?
     
  8. kryonlight

    kryonlight Alfrescian (Inf)

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    After that, wait for Trump to crush China's economy with some hefty trade tariffs.
     
  9. Agoraphobic

    Agoraphobic Alfrescian Old Timer

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    Forget ASEAN. Singapore is nothing to the others. She is a Peesai. ALL Sg has going for her is her strong dollar. And while it is up there, better to invest it wisely before it starts to fall. As for the Kra project, my advise is to deploy our commandoes to sabotage its construction. By covert military operations, and also by instigating local thugs and gangsters in that locale to extort money from construction crews there, and instigate social unrest in that region. Make it unsafe for blokes to estabish businesses and operations in that area. Progress in that region must be delayed as much as possible.

    Cheers!

     
  10. sleaguepunter

    sleaguepunter Alfrescian (Inf)

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    bro zhihau, ASEAN can never be united. History already shown so many times. During the warring states, the other 6 states have more $$, more grains, more populations, more troops than Qin when 2-3 of them combine. In the end, Qin makan them all one by one.

    Malaysia najib is digging the malays own grave, by selling the nation to CCP, it openly inviting the yellow peril to itself.
     
  11. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    not expecting a tyrant to unite ASEAN in that sense, but finding common grounds to work for the common good.
     
  12. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    With Xi being able to rule for life, how would the Chair of ASEAN address this development? Teehee...
     
  13. kryonlight

    kryonlight Alfrescian (Inf)

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    10 ASEAN leaders attend Republic Day parade as chief guests

    Signifying India's fast growing strategic ties with ASEAN, leaders of all the 10 countries of the powerful bloc today attended the Republic Day parade at the majestic Rajpath which showcased the country's military might and cultural diversity.

    The presence of the ASEAN leaders was unprecedented and reflective of India's stature as a major power in the region,where China has been trying to expand its influence.Prime Minister Narendra Modi had invited the ASEAN leaders for the India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit and to attend the Republic Day celebrations as chief guests.
     
  14. eatshitndie

    eatshitndie Alfrescian (Inf)

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    please lah asean unity? is this the joke of the year?
     
  15. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    there's order in chaos, so why not?
     
  16. eatshitndie

    eatshitndie Alfrescian (Inf)

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    you too dreamy lah. did you take the red or blue pill today?
     
  17. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    I forgot my pills o_O:confused::p
     
  18. mojito

    mojito Alfrescian Old Timer

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    Silly thick face! Suez canal open you see Capetown got panic like you or not? Airplane stop flying there because of that huh? City disappear overnight? Peasant stick to peasant concerns, like when your next paycheck coming, who will hire you after 50 and how long before bank account balance less than 500 dollar again. :rolleyes:
     
  19. eatshitndie

    eatshitndie Alfrescian (Inf)

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    kra canal will never happen in our lifetimes. no sound no sight from this bs project for over 6.9 years already. even the nicaragua canal project to bypass panama canal is dead. very soon obor will die too. tiongs talk big but can't do jackshit with foreign local politics and ineptness.
     
  20. zhihau

    zhihau Alfrescian (InfP) + S-Mod Old Timer

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    Tiongs are Tiongs at the end of the day, self sufficient and all mighty, the rest of the world are just peripherals and/or vassal states. 中。
     

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